Bush's underrated fantasy value
Why the Detroit running back is a great pick in fantasy this season
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Reggie Bush should prove a valuable new addition to Detroit's offense this season.<!-- end wide photo -->
The most important players on a fantasy football roster are the cornerstones on which owners rely for big point production, such as Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers.
As essential as those figures are, in more than a few instances the most valuable draft pick is one that brings RB1/WR1/QB1 performance with a much lower pick on draft day.
Using this barometer, there is a strong case to be made that Reggie Bush is vastly underrated and has the potential to be the most valuable player in fantasy football this season.
Bush had 159 points last year, which ranked 14th among running backs and placed him only 31 points away from a top-10 ranking at that position. This means he was roughly two points per game away from being a true RB1 and thus has to improve only by a reasonable amount to become a top-flight fantasy starter.
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Making up that point gap will require Bush to receive a fairly large workload, and his reputation as not being a workhorse back is such that this might seem unlikely to happen.
That reputation may have been accurate in 2010 but it isn't accurate as of right now. For proof, consider that Bush is one of only 10 backs to tally 250 or more combined rushes/targets in each of the past two years. He shares some pretty strong company here, as the other running backs on this list are Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Shonn Greene and Steven Jackson.
The relatively heavy workload did not slow Bush down last year. According to my 2013 fantasy football draft guide, his 7.4-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric tied for 16th in the league. (Note: GBYPA measures how productive a running back is when given good blocking, which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt).
Maybe more importantly, Bush's GBYPA mark was also six-tenths of a yard higher than Miami's team GBYPA of 6.8 yards. This means Bush did a better job of using the Dolphins' run blocking than the other Miami running backs, and it shows he can makes yards where other backs can't.
Going to Detroit does mean taking a step back from a good blocking rate (GBR) perspective, as the Dolphins finished second in the league in that category with a 51.6 percent mark. But it doesn't mean Bush is going to an untenable situation, since the Lions posted a 45.7 percent GBR that ranked 14th in the league. Their offensive line is going through some personnel changes, but even if this front wall manages to tread water run blocking-wise, it's still a good situation for Bush.
Besides the line changes, Detroit's coaching staff could make many other alterations to this offense, as the Lions are going to have to run the ball more often to get the most out of QB Matthew Stafford.
These adjustments will be made in part to cut back on Stafford's risky ways (his 48 combined interceptions/near interceptions were second-most in the league). One way to do this while still letting him throw the ball is to incorporate more pass plays to running backs.
Bush's numbers show he is a perfect fit for that. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bush ranked in the top 10 in running back targets (51), receiving yards (292) and receiving touchdowns (two) last year. The Lions were quite effective on screen passes last year, ranking 12th in screen pass YPA (6.7), so look for Bush to get plenty of those passes directed his way.
A potential impediment to Bush's fantasy scoring is that he will likely not be the regular goal-line back in this offense. That isn't a plus, but it isn't as if his superb 2012 fantasy numbers were built around goal-line productivity. According to the ESPN Insider Goal-Line Grid, Bush had only four of Miami's 20 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line last season. The Lions are the type of club to spread the ball out a lot when getting close to paydirt, and Bush would likely be the back in that scenario. Look for him to at least equal his goal-line usage of last season.
All of these potential upside elements offer compelling reasons for fantasy owners to pick Bush in a draft, but the most compelling could be his relatively low cost. His No. 22 mark among running backs in the current ESPN ADP rankings means that Bush is slated to be available as a high-end RB3 in the average draft room. Since he is all but certain to offer RB2 value, Bush would already be a value pick at that draft level, and his strong RB1 chances enhance that value even more.
Rare is the time when this much upside is combined with such a small amount of downside. It makes Bush a rare high-end value pick and possibly the best value/reward pick in fantasy football this season.
Why the Detroit running back is a great pick in fantasy this season
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Reggie Bush should prove a valuable new addition to Detroit's offense this season.<!-- end wide photo -->
The most important players on a fantasy football roster are the cornerstones on which owners rely for big point production, such as Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers.
As essential as those figures are, in more than a few instances the most valuable draft pick is one that brings RB1/WR1/QB1 performance with a much lower pick on draft day.
Using this barometer, there is a strong case to be made that Reggie Bush is vastly underrated and has the potential to be the most valuable player in fantasy football this season.
Bush had 159 points last year, which ranked 14th among running backs and placed him only 31 points away from a top-10 ranking at that position. This means he was roughly two points per game away from being a true RB1 and thus has to improve only by a reasonable amount to become a top-flight fantasy starter.
<OFFER>
Making up that point gap will require Bush to receive a fairly large workload, and his reputation as not being a workhorse back is such that this might seem unlikely to happen.
That reputation may have been accurate in 2010 but it isn't accurate as of right now. For proof, consider that Bush is one of only 10 backs to tally 250 or more combined rushes/targets in each of the past two years. He shares some pretty strong company here, as the other running backs on this list are Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Shonn Greene and Steven Jackson.
The relatively heavy workload did not slow Bush down last year. According to my 2013 fantasy football draft guide, his 7.4-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric tied for 16th in the league. (Note: GBYPA measures how productive a running back is when given good blocking, which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt).
Maybe more importantly, Bush's GBYPA mark was also six-tenths of a yard higher than Miami's team GBYPA of 6.8 yards. This means Bush did a better job of using the Dolphins' run blocking than the other Miami running backs, and it shows he can makes yards where other backs can't.
Going to Detroit does mean taking a step back from a good blocking rate (GBR) perspective, as the Dolphins finished second in the league in that category with a 51.6 percent mark. But it doesn't mean Bush is going to an untenable situation, since the Lions posted a 45.7 percent GBR that ranked 14th in the league. Their offensive line is going through some personnel changes, but even if this front wall manages to tread water run blocking-wise, it's still a good situation for Bush.
Besides the line changes, Detroit's coaching staff could make many other alterations to this offense, as the Lions are going to have to run the ball more often to get the most out of QB Matthew Stafford.
These adjustments will be made in part to cut back on Stafford's risky ways (his 48 combined interceptions/near interceptions were second-most in the league). One way to do this while still letting him throw the ball is to incorporate more pass plays to running backs.
Bush's numbers show he is a perfect fit for that. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bush ranked in the top 10 in running back targets (51), receiving yards (292) and receiving touchdowns (two) last year. The Lions were quite effective on screen passes last year, ranking 12th in screen pass YPA (6.7), so look for Bush to get plenty of those passes directed his way.
A potential impediment to Bush's fantasy scoring is that he will likely not be the regular goal-line back in this offense. That isn't a plus, but it isn't as if his superb 2012 fantasy numbers were built around goal-line productivity. According to the ESPN Insider Goal-Line Grid, Bush had only four of Miami's 20 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line last season. The Lions are the type of club to spread the ball out a lot when getting close to paydirt, and Bush would likely be the back in that scenario. Look for him to at least equal his goal-line usage of last season.
All of these potential upside elements offer compelling reasons for fantasy owners to pick Bush in a draft, but the most compelling could be his relatively low cost. His No. 22 mark among running backs in the current ESPN ADP rankings means that Bush is slated to be available as a high-end RB3 in the average draft room. Since he is all but certain to offer RB2 value, Bush would already be a value pick at that draft level, and his strong RB1 chances enhance that value even more.
Rare is the time when this much upside is combined with such a small amount of downside. It makes Bush a rare high-end value pick and possibly the best value/reward pick in fantasy football this season.
